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Taste-Bench: best model picks the right fork 59.7% of the time — Outcome-hidden decision forks — What does it mean?

The news. On September 22, 2026, researchers from City University of Hong Kong and Microsoft, with one independent co-author, posted the paper "The Tasteful Agent" (arXiv 2609.25804) and released Taste-Bench. It holds 502 two-choice questions: 390 from software-engineering runs on SWE-bench Pro and 112 from AI-research runs in METR's public MALT transcripts. The best of 14 frontier models scores 59.7%. A Qwen3.6-27B student trained from an outcome-aware teacher rises from 30.0% to 47.9% on questions from tasks it never saw. Read the paper →

Picture the hiker at the junction. Both trails look fine for the first few metres; one reaches the summit, the other ends at a cliff an hour later. A decision fork is that junction inside an agent's run: a point where two directions are both plausible and only the later work shows which one was right. For a coding agent the two trails might be "patch the caller" versus "fix the shared helper"; for a research agent, "tune the learning rate" versus "change the data mix". An end-to-end benchmark only asks whether the hiker reached the summit. It cannot tell a good choice at the junction from a bad choice followed by luck, because execution quality and the environment also decide the outcome.

Taste-Bench gets its answer key from hikers who already walked both trails. Agent systems often run the same task several times, and when two attempts share an equivalent prefix and then split, the recorded outcomes of the two branches label the better direction, with no human annotation. That is the parallel construction. The detour construction uses one run in which the agent took a direction, saw it fail, and switched; the abandoned direction and the recovery become the two options, and the fork is placed just before the mistake. Then the fog comes down: the benchmark freezes the run at the fork, hides every later step, and asks the model to choose.

To keep the questions honest, judge models drop any fork that can be answered from the wording of the two options alone, and any fork whose label the full record does not clearly support. Only 10.8% of 4,657 proposed forks survive. In a human check of 100 sampled questions, reviewers who saw the recorded outcomes agreed with the mined label on 170 of 172 explicit judgments (98.8%). Each question is asked twice with the options swapped and counts only if both answers are right, so random guessing scores 25% (½ × ½) and always picking the first option scores 0%.

The results say taste is weak, and that thinking longer at the junction does not fix it. Each fork is tagged with a time horizon, shown in the table below. Averaged over the 14 models, accuracy falls from 62.3% when the deciding fact is already in the prefix to 21.0% when it needs more later work, below the 25% random baseline. Raising reasoning effort on two GPT-5.6 models changed accuracy by −0.2 and +2.2 points, and both models spent the most reasoning tokens at the horizon level where their accuracy was lowest. That is the hiker again: staring harder at the fog does not show you the cliff. For an agent builder it is a warning against treating a bigger reasoning budget as the fix for bad direction choices.

Time horizonWhere the deciding evidence isMean accuracy, 14 models
In prefixA fact already visible before the fork rules one option out62.3% (paper, Fig. 4)
InferableNo single decisive fact, but hints in the prefix together justify the answernot given in the text; plotted in Fig. 4
Next stepThe first observation after the fork settles itnot given in the text; plotted in Fig. 4
More workOnly a completed check or substantial later work settles it21.0%, below the 25% random baseline (paper, Fig. 4)

Taste is a separate score, not a restatement of end-to-end skill. Against public SWE-bench Verified scores across 11 models, the correlation is r = +0.63, and only +0.37 on the engineering subset, even though that subset was mined from SWE-bench Pro. The four models at the top of SWE-bench Verified are within 4.0 points of each other there but 10.7 points apart on Taste-Bench. This is the lesson of moving from a single pass/fail bit to a scored rubric: the final pass rate hides where a run went wrong, and a per-decision score shows it.

The paper also shows that taste can be trained. A teacher that is told which option won writes out its reasoning, and a student that sees only the task, the prefix and the two options is trained to reproduce those reasoning tokens. Teacher and student are the same Qwen3.6-27B base model with different contexts, and training updates only LoRA adapters (small low-rank add-on weights), so the judgment that the answer made possible moves into the student's weights. The authors chose this over fitting the bare A/B labels, which carry one bit per question and, they argue, let a model memorize answers without learning the judgment. On questions from tasks it never trained on, the student goes from 30.0% to 47.9%.

Here is what that judgment is worth end to end. Hold the executor fixed (a Qwen3.6-27B agent) and the task set fixed (41 held-out SWE-bench Pro tasks), and change only the fork-derived advice placed in its context before the run starts. The forks were mined from earlier runs on the same tasks, so they are known before the new run starts. With no advice the executor solves 14.6%, about 6 tasks. With correct advice at every fork it solves 39.0%, 16 tasks, the upper bound for this kind of advice. With the student's advice it solves 33.7%, about 14 tasks. The student's advice captures 19.1 of the 24.4 points that perfect advice adds, about 78%, without changing the executor model.

Goes deeper in: AI Agents → Evals & Diagnostics → Pass/Fail vs Score

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